John McCain ought to have a big problem - namely that Republicans don’t actually like him very much and it’s Republicans that he has to convince to make him the party’s nominee. As I’ve argued recently, McCain’s popularity comes from a relatively small section of the Republican broad church.
So far, his saving grace is that [...]

Filed under: election2008, fredthompson, johnmccain, mattclifford, rudyriuliani, uspolitics on January 23rd, 2008 | No Comments »

Rudy Giuliani, ahead in the polls for several weeks, has now overtaken John McCain as the favourite for the Republican presidential nomination. The time lag between the shift in the polling numbers and the adjustment of the odds is intriguing. Part of the explanation must be the fact that - as we’ve discussed previously - [...]

Filed under: election2008, foreignpolicy, rudyriuliani, uspolitics on March 1st, 2007 | 1 Comment »

One of our readers suggests that Rudy Giuliani has nothing to fear from the religious right, because his social liberalism will allow him to tap into the libertarian right. I’m not sure this is true. This report suggests that Giuliani is going to have difficulties, particularly with his views on abortion. The crucial point:
Of those [...]

Filed under: abortion, election2008, rudyriuliani, uspolitics on February 12th, 2007 | 5 Comments »