Interesting times. With an extraordinary Con-Lib coalition about to be finalised, David Cameron and Nick Clegg must be all but salivating at the prospect of imminent power as a forlorn Gordon Brown skulks off into obscurity and Labour braces itself for a spell in opposition.

It looks like a catastrophe for the outgoing government. But it is not. There is a reason why the Lib-Lab talks collapsed: Labour has a huge amount to gain by going voluntarily into opposition. The party’s bigwigs have weighed the options and understood that:

1. A Lib-Lab coalition would have been weak and unpopular from the outset.

2. A Con-Lib coalition is unlikely to hang together for more than a year or two. The ideological gulf between the parties is enormous.

3. Labour needs only a small swing in its favour at the next election to be the largest party in the next parliament.

4. Many Lib Dem voters never imagined that the party would prop up a Tory administration. They will think twice before voting the same way again.

5. The incoming government will inherit a budgetary nightmare. It will have little choice but to make savage cuts in public spending. This is not a recipe for success in the polls.

Consequently, Labour’s prospective leaders are eyeing an open goal at the next election. The price of conceding power now is more than compensated by the probability of a swift return to office with a new figurehead and the past thirteen years already a distant memory in the minds of the electorate.

It’s a gamble, for there is an alternative possibility. Voters, understanding the special circumstances, could forgive Cameron and Clegg, not only for getting into bed with each other but also for the tough times which follow. The new cabinet could be surprisingly harmonious and govern surprisingly effectively, enjoying a honeymoon so extended that, when Cameron goes to the polls in a year’s time, he romps home for a new term with a clear majority.

The Labour Party is justifiably confident that this will not happen. From their perspective, things can only get better.

Filed under: conservatives, davidcameron, jonathanbirch, labour, ukpolitics on May 11th, 2010