The surge of support for the Liberal Democrats over the last week is proof of an extraordinary political coup, pulled off by the Labour Party. When people cast their votes on May 6^th they will cast them not for or against the government, but for or against the Conservatives. David Cameron is the central figure in this election, not the Prime Minister he seeks to replace, and the ranks of Lib Dem supporters have been swelled by that huge part of the electorate who are disenchanted with Labour, but unimpressed by the Tories. This situation could yet produce a result that seemed unthinkable only a year ago – keeping Gordon Brown in office.

A party incumbent for thirteen years has made this election a referendum not on their record in office, but on the suitability of the opposition to solve the problems they themselves have created. The party of Alastair Campbell is able to ridicule the Tories for airbrushing posters. The Conservatives still think their trump card is reminding voters that a Labour government means another five years of Gordon: they’re wrong.

There’s no-one in the country who hasn’t made up their mind about Brown already. The contempt which he attracted when the recession first hit has long ebbed away, especially now the economy is evidently recovering. Voters feel like they did about Blair in 2005: they don’t like the Prime Minister, but they’ve got bored of disliking him, and he now attracts something closer to a weary ambivalence. It’s Cameron who remains a mystery to most voters, not because he’s a new figure, but precisely because he has been around for so long now – the longest serving Leader of the Opposition since Kinnock – without properly defining himself.

The Tory lead over the last two years seems to have been illusory: polls reflected unhappiness with the government rather than any real enthusiasm for the Tories. But Cameron has had five years to capitalise on a government in disarray and an electorate ready to listen to a new generation of Conservatives untainted by the ‘nasty party’ days. Not till last week’s manifesto was the central Conservative agenda for government – to empower individuals to take public services into their own hands – properly articulated outside of Westminster. That message should have been the theme of the last five years, not a couple days of the campaign. Ask most voters what Cameron really stands for, and they’re stumped: Inheritance Tax? National Insurance? Tax breaks for married couples? These are not election winning issues.

The Labour line that the Tories are the ‘do-nothing’ party is powerful because the Tories appear visionless. It’s become a cliché that the Tories have not ‘sealed the deal’, but it is the reality, as exposed by this rush of support to the Lib Dems since the first debate. With less than two weeks left, Cameron is fast running out of time.

Filed under: conservatives, davidcameron, labour, libdems, ukpolitics on April 23rd, 2010