Mitrovica, Kosovo — Creative Commons licensed photo courtesy of Flickr user Jekkyl.

Yesterday was the first anniversary of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia. Kosovo was not a Yugoslav republic like Croatia or Slovenia, so it did not immediately emerge as independent from the break up of Yugoslavia, but remained a province of Serbia, despite ninety percent of its population being ethnic Albanians, until a year ago, when it declared independence unilaterally.

Kosovo had been under UN administration since 1999, but Serbia still claimed it as an integral part of its territory, and extended talks about Kosovo’s status failed to reach an agreement that was supported by both Serbia and Kosovo. The Russian alliance with Serbia also meant that no resolution could be pushed through the UN Security Council without Belgrade’s approval. The former President of Finland, Martti Ahtisaari, was charged with leading talks on Kosovo’s independence. As it became clear that the talks had failed and that the US, the UK and France would all recognise Kosovo should it declare independence, Kosovo’s assembly announced its rejection of Serbian rule on 17^th February 2008. However, since then, only 54 of the UN’s 192 members have recognised this independence.

Those countries who have not recognised Kosovo include five EU members and China. Spain fears recognising Kosovo would give more legitimacy to calls for independence from some of its autonomous communities. Slovakia fears unrest within its Hungarian minority, and Cyprus worries about the Turkish Cypriots in the north using Kosovo as a precedent to rule out a future reunion of the island. Similarly, China worries that recognising Kosovo could lead to a declaration of independence by Taiwan.

Despite gaining some sort of territorial sovereignty, Kosovo’s economy is in a sorry state: the unemployment rate is about 50%, and 40% of the population live below the poverty line. The government only controls the Albanian-majority areas, with the Serb enclaves still looking to Belgrade for leadership. Even in those areas the government controls, the government’s actual power is limited, with much of the police and judiciary being part of EULEX, the EU’s rule of law mission to Kosovo. NATO troops protect the Serb minority from any potential ethnic tension.

So where does Kosovo go from here? It badly needs to reach an agreement with Serbia on its status. Unfortunately, Serbia is not likely to move on the issue any time soon: the Serbian President, Boris Tadi?, recently stated that “Kosovo is not a country.” A settlement, probably with autonomy for Serb areas, would provide the stability needed for its economy to grow, to lift its two million people out of poverty. Alternatively, more widespread recognition could force Serbia’s hand, but so far Serbia and Russia have been very successful at campaigning against the breakaway region in the international arena. Ultimately, however, Serbia needs to accept that it has lost this battle: reunification is highly unlikely to happen given the US’s support for Kosovo.

If Serbia were to indicate that it no longer claimed Kosovo as part of its sovereign territory, more widespread recognition could follow. Furthermore, once the issue is resolved, movement towards EU membership can continue. Although Cyprus was admitted despite not having sovereignty over the entire island, no EU members recognise North Cyprus as independent, whereas most members do recognise Kosovo. EU membership offers the best chance of stability and growth in the region and will keep the Balkans on a democratic path.

Filed under: eu, europe, foreignpolicy on February 18th, 2009