John McCain ought to have a big problem - namely that Republicans don’t actually like him very much and it’s Republicans that he has to convince to make him the party’s nominee. As I’ve argued recently, McCain’s popularity comes from a relatively small section of the Republican broad church.

So far, his saving grace is that he is a lone moderate facing off against three more obvious conservatives. Romney, Huckabee and until now Thompson have been splitting the vote of those to the right of McCain (which is most Republicans) between them. But things are about to change for two important reasons.

First, Thompson has quit the race. His supporters, the exit polls suggest, liked him for his traditional conservatism, his tough line on immigration and his support of tax cuts. The chances of these people flocking to McCain seems slim.

Second, Florida is on its way. Now Giuliani’s decision to wait out the race until the Sunshine state has cost him his frontrunner status (which he enjoyed as recently as December) and almost certainly the nomination. But it hasn’t made him disappear entirely. He will likely pick up substantial support from moderates in Florida and New York, which could be enough to deny McCain a plurality and hand Romney a good deal of momentum.

McCain is certainly the man to beat, but the betting markets make him the odds-on favourite. It’s early days still, and that doesn’t seem quite right.

Filed under: election2008, fredthompson, johnmccain, mattclifford, rudyriuliani, uspolitics on January 23rd, 2008