More interesting exit polls over the weekend. I’m a little rushed today, so a detailed look will have to wait until later but three potentially very important points:

1. Obama won 83% of the black vote in Nevada. That’s really huge: African-Americans used to be some of the Clinton’s most loyal supports. Indeed, Bill has been referred to as “the first black president”.

2. Obama still lost. The overwhelming black support that Jonathan correctly predicted may not be enough to save Obama: Clinton beat him in Nevada in every income band and overwhelmingly among white and Hispanic voters.

3. Something has gone horribly wrong for Obama among voters who describe themselves as “very liberal”. His Iowa win was fuelled by the liberal wing of the party; without them Clinton would have emerged the victor. But in Nevada these voters favoured Hillary by 16 points - a massive reversal. Why? Well, spouting forth about the glories of the Reagan days probably didn’t help (More good analysis here). It’s as simple as this: if the liberals don’t return to Obama, Hillary will be the nominee.

Interesting times . . .

Filed under: barackobama, election2008, hillaryclinton, mattclifford, uspolitics on January 21st, 2008