It may seem surprising to citizens of a country which may receive as little as three weeks notice before an election, but across the pond no sooner had the Republicans been routed in the 2006 mid-terms the campaign to be the 44th occupant of the White House began. The fact that campaigns are increasingly dependent on the millions of dollars in fundraising needed to fund pricey television ads, combined with the fact that states are bustling for position to hold their primaries and caucuses as early as possible has been directly responsible for this. All of which should, in principle, favour the frontrunner. So no surprises on the Democratic side where Hillary Clinton has taken a 27.8% lead over Barack Obama nationally and leads in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

The campaign has proved more interesting on the GOP side where the big names, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson have all invoked the dissatisfaction of the conservative Christian right (remember those guys from 2004?). Giuliani is pro-choice, pro-gun control and on his third wife (not to mention his former penchant for dressing in drag) while McCain supports a ‘guest-worker program’ for illegal immigrants. Romney was pro-choice before his rather convenient flip-flop and his Mormon faith could hurt him among evangelicals and finally Thompson (a former lobbyist as well as actor) garnered a reputation for idleness during his stint in the Senate. The four traded blows at a ‘Values Voters’ (and I use the term ‘values’ loosely) summit in Florida over the weekend with all trying to outflank each other on the right and claiming to be the heir to Reagan. The bible-belt were searching for a hero among the overcrowded field and may have found one in Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, with a consistently conservative record on the issues that matter to the Bible belt and who significantly cut taxes. The problem— few people know who he is, and where they do it may be for his impressive weight loss. Though well behind the other candidates in terms of fundraising, Huckabee boasts impressive poll numbers in Iowa. A strong showing there, a second place or even a strong third, would bring his name to the forefront of voters’ minds in subsequent primaries, especially if he can emerge from New Hampshire and Iowa as the most likely alternative to Giuliani. A Huckabee victory is perhaps unlikely, but so was that of another governor from Hope, Arkansas back in the 1992 primaries and look where he and his wife got to.

Whichever way you look at it, Dubya’s unpopularity is going to hurt the GOP’s nominee and it’s hard not to see Bill and Hillary moving back in, with roles reversed of course.

Filed under: barackobama, election2008, hillaryclinton, jameschettle, mikehuckabee, republican, uspolitics on November 18th, 2007