The Calm before the Storm
Posted by Ed Ballard on March 27th, 2007
The press is struggling slightly over the Iranian ‘rendition’ story at the moment - it can’t quite keep hold of front page news. Outrage and indignation abound from most corners, along with ‘breaking news’ headlines whenever Blair opens his mouth. But I fear the gravity of the situation hasn’t achieved widespread recognition yet.
Background first of all. HMS Cornwall is part of a Royal Navy task force tackling smuggling and policing Iraqi oil platforms. It has operated in the area for some time and launches detachments of marines to search ships on a regular basis. The importance of territorial waters is well understood and each motor launch is fitted with GPS equipment so that they never make any mistakes. Two things are crucial in all of this. Firstly that these searches are routine – the Iranians have watched them happening for months. Secondly that they are always firmly within Iraqi waters – no question. Such was the case on the 23rd of March, business as usual. Only this time three heavily armed Iranian gunboats surrounded them and escorted them at gunpoint into Iran.
This was not an accident. Neither was it the action of a few individuals, ‘insurgents’ or ‘terrorists’. This was the action of a sovereign state, which has accepted responsibility for its actions. More than accepted responsibility though – accused Britain of being in the wrong. First the claim to have ‘extracted confessions’ from the Britons that they were in Iranian waters (I hope my inference is misplaced). Second the official statements of ‘British aggression’ from the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Third the proposition that the servicemen could stand trial for espionage or treason. Comparisons are being made to the seizure of 8 marines in 2004. That was resolved as a ‘misunderstanding’. There seems little hope of that this time, which makes it utterly different.
As The Times pointed out today, in the past actions such as this would have been justification for war. The timid response of No.10 is telling therefore. Five years ago, an alliance of Britain and America was a force to be reckoned with. Countries watched their step. Political will, popular will, and military and economic resources existed to wage a serious campaign against any state that dared stand up to them. Never mind imperialist overtones, what I’m referring to is potential. Iraq has drained that, and Iran recognises this. We’ve squandered the power of threatened action. It is a genuine a problem – what on earth are we going to do if the Iranians don’t give them up?
If we are lucky the diplomatic service will shine through and all this will come to nothing. If not we a stuck between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand we could continue to pressure and harangue, argue and persuade but take no concrete action; prevent escalation. But this would be disastrous for our reputation internationally as a direct provocation would have gone unmet. It would set a very dangerous precedent. On the other hand we could set an ultimatum backed up by military action. If they called our bluff however…
At the moment we are all taken up with the plight of the 15 personnel. But unlike the actions of Al Queda, Iraqi insurgents or the Taleban, this has international political ramifications. Unless resolved quickly, both acting and not acting could be disastrous. I hope my concern is misplaced, but I fear we are in the calm before the storm.
Filed under: foreignpolicy, iran on March 27th, 2007
It seems like an act of desperation from Iran. You’re right - it could be seen as an act of war, and Iran must know that.
My best guess is that these stunts (like the one in 2004, which we must now assume was a stunt) are a desperate attempt to mobilise Iranian public opinion against the West and towards the Iranian regime. Why? Because Ahmadinejad is supporting a nuclear weapons programme and knows that his gamble could fail and the regime could fall with the resultant sanctions or military action.
It’s a scary scenario, for which Iraq was only a warm-up. Iraq was, as regards WMD, an imaginary component of the “axis of evil” - Iran and North Korea are probably the real deal. I suspect this row will resolve itself in the short-term. But in the long term, the smart money must be on another conflict in 10 years or less.