Rudy Giuliani, ahead in the polls for several weeks, has now overtaken John McCain as the favourite for the Republican presidential nomination. The time lag between the shift in the polling numbers and the adjustment of the odds is intriguing. Part of the explanation must be the fact that - as we’ve discussed previously - people who are ready to stake money on the outcome were (and still are) having a hard time believing that Giuliani can really win once the public gets to know him.

We’ve largely focused on his difficulties with social conservatives. But, as Matt Yglesias (if you don’t already read his blog, do) notes, the other problem is that it’s not entirely clear where Giuliani’s foreign policy and national security credentials come from. Certainly, he had considerable success reducing crime in New York City. But why should he be venerated as a national security expert? It’s hard to beat the Onion’s (satirical) analysis:

Sure, he has no foreign or national policy experience, and both his personal life and political career are riddled with scandal,” said Hammond. “But in the key area of having been on TV on 9/11, the other candidates simply cannot match him. And as we saw in 2004, that’s what matters most to voters in this post-9/11 world.

Filed under: election2008, foreignpolicy, rudyriuliani, uspolitics on March 1st, 2007