Here it is, the long-promised Giuliani post (and you’ll notice that I’m capable of spelling his name, which is more than I can say for a lot of people – is that a problem for a future President? Answers on a postcard/otherwise known as the comments field…). He’s actually declared now, and is running as a Republican (yes, it was in doubt at some point).

Giuliani has overtaken long-favoured John McCain, who it was assumed last year would be a shoo-in for the nomination – 34% of Republican voters said they’d choose him in the primaries, as opposed to 22% for John McCain. However, in the same poll, 17% said they were undecided and 15% opted for Newt Gingrich, who hasn’t declared yet, so the tide may turn – in fact, is likely to turn, in my opinion. I support the conventional wisdom, which is that Rudy Giuliani cannot win. Even if by some ridiculous twist of fate he managed to win the Republican nomination, he would never be able to win the country. The Republican party relies on the Christian Coalition’s massive mobilisation efforts to win the big states, and there’s no way they’ll turn out for someone as socially liberal as he is. Giuliani supports abortion and gay rights legislation (both to a certain extent) and is fervently pro-gun control, logically pointing out that it was this position which helped him have such a positive impact on crime in New York City when he was mayor there. Unsurprisingly, the NRA aren’t going to like that. Indeed, they may even be forced to switch sides and get behind Democratic Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, whose gubernatorial candidacy they supported. While this would certainly be an interesting development, it’s unlikely the Republican Party would be too impressed with the prospect of one of its most powerful pressure groups deserting them.

In fact, I always thought it made far more sense for Giuliani to run as an independent. Not only would it free him of such difficulties as appealing to the conservative base, but depending on who the Democratic nominee is, he’d have a real chance of splitting the vote. But he’s an intelligent guy, and presumably he’s realised that this wouldn’t give him what every candidate needs a lot of in this race – money and backers.

But, as Democracy in America points out, if Giuliani can’t appeal to the Republican base, why does he keep coming top in these polls? Aren’t they supposed to be representative? My answer to this is that people have decided they’re not 100% behind John McCain anymore (after all, his candidacy now hangs entirely on the success of the Iraq surge strategy) and haven’t heard of any of the rest of the GOP field. Why isn’t Sam Brownback, that traditionally conservative Senator, higher up? Instead, people seem to be opting for a figure they know and love (well, only if they don’t revile him the way Democrats do) who hasn’t even entered the race yet, and may not. After all, who can really imagine a successful Newt Gingrich candidacy? But that’s another story for another day…

The point is this: even the Giuliani campaign itself has serious questions about whether he can overcome these obvious obstacles. He is not a national figure by far, and while clearly respected for his success in dealing with NYC during the events of 9/11, that bubble will burst eventually. The Iowa caucuses, one of the first primaries Giuliani will have to face, is usually dominated by socially and religiously conservative Republicans who will have serious questions about his positions on issues like abortion, and if he can’t do well at the beginning of the race he will inevitably run out of money – there’s only so much to go around, and other candidates have massive state-by-state machines already in place for an election over a year away. Sure, he could do well by building on Republicans’ fear of another Clinton Presidency. But the other candidates can do that as well, without looking frighteningly similar to Mrs Clinton themselves.

Yet again, I return to this possibility – Giuliani would make a good vice-Presidential candidate, for either party. He’s reasonably well-liked and balances either ticket perfectly in a country where voters are rejecting extreme partisanship. The only question is whether he manages to stay in the game for long enough.

Giuliani Announces He’s in ‘08 Presidential Race [Washington Post]
Giuliani, the next Lieberman? [Democracy in America]
Giuliani’s Social Views Could Be His Downfall [CQPolitics]
Join Rudy2008 [Rudy Giuliani Presidential Exploratory Committee]

Filed under: election2008, uspolitics on February 11th, 2007