So, everybody loves David Cameron? Sure. I do. You do. The Establishment does. Poor people…don’t hate him. Even hippies like him. So what could possibly wreck his chances of winning the next election?

Well, obviously there’s Gordon, but I’m not going to discuss that. Creaky Goliath vs. plucky David- I wouldn’t like to call it. But if someone so much as mentions Europe, I’d give his party a fair chance of falling apart. We haven’t talked about Europe for a long time. The last flourish of excitement was the advent of the EU constitution, which stalled in France and Belgium, to the relief of politicians on these shores. The Conservatives had captured the public mood then, with their determined will to oppose any attempt to make the EU more accountable, largely on the grounds that it was unaccountable….I digress. Anyway, Europe has been political poison to all those that have touched it, since the Maastricht treaty at the very least.

But that might all change. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, has vowed to bring back the constitution. The new members have settled in nicely, and we have profited more than anywhere else from their accession. Our stag weekends take place in Tallin, Riga, and Prague. Our services are performed by Poles. Our language has become the lingua franca (ironic, that) for aspiring young people across Eastern Europe. The Euro is far less of a taboo than it once was. The currency is clearly working, it is challenging the dollar for world currency supremacy, and it is winning. We have become used to it on holiday, our businesses are comfortable with it, and frankly, we like the convenience.

In short, talking about Europe once more might just be a good thing. The poison may be drawn. Cameron will have to be pro-European because he is pro-Green. The EU has a better chance of reaching meaningful agreement on climate change than any other body, and if Cameron wants to be green, he will have to either welcome ‘Brussels regulations’ or perform an incredible feat of political acrobatics. Even the economic advantages of staying out are looking less and less plausible, and the chance to reshape the EU in our image beckons.

So what could this mean for domestic politics? Europe is the magic bullet that could still kill the Conservative party. If it becomes part of mainstream political discourse again, it will become apparent just how superficial the Cameron rebranding really was. For the Lib Dems, if they play their cards right, it means a raison d’etre once more. The chances of cards being played right are unfortunately minimal however. For Labour, it could be a stick to beat the Conservative party with, but it could put a crucial strain on foreign policy for the previously Eurosceptic Brown.

Filed under: conservatives, davidcameron, europe on January 31st, 2007